Did the World Economic Forum see the warning lights blinking last year?

A brief summary of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risk Report 2020.

Economic and political polarization will rise this year, as collaboration between world leaders, businesses and policy-makers is needed more than ever to stop severe threats to our climate, environment, public health and technology systems. This points to a clear need for a multistakeholder approach to mitigating risk at a time when the world cannot wait for the fog of geopolitical disorder to lift.

More than 750 global experts and decision makers were asked to rank their biggest concerns in terms of likelihood and impact and 78 % said they expect economic confrontations and domestic polarization to rise in 2020.

For the first time in the survey’s 10-year outlook, the top five global risks in terms of likelihood are all environmental.

The report sounds the alarm on:

• Extreme weather events with major damage to property, infrastructure and loss of human life
• Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation by governments and businesses.
• Human-made environmental damage and disasters, including environmental crime, such as oil spills, and radioactive contamination.
• Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (terrestrial or marine) with irreversible consequences for the environment, resulting in severely depleted resources for humankind as well as industries.
• Major natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, and geomagnetic storms.

It adds that unless stakeholders adapt to “today’s epochal power-shift” and geopolitical turbulence — while still preparing for the future — time will run out to address some of the most pressing economic, environmental and technological challenges. This signals where action by business and policy-makers is most needed.

Human activity has already caused the loss of 83% of all wild mammals and half of plants — which underpin our food and health systems. Peter Giger, Group Chief Risk Officer, Zurich Insurance Group warned of the urgent need to adapt faster to avoid the worst and irreversible impacts of climate change and to do more to protect the planet’s biodiversity:

“Biologically diverse ecosystems capture vast amounts of carbon and provide massive economic benefits that are estimated at $33 trillion per year — the equivalent to the GDP of the US and China combined. It’s critical that companies and policy-makers move faster to transition to a low carbon economy and more sustainable business models. We are already seeing companies destroyed by failing to align their strategies to shifts in policy and customer preferences. Transitionary risks are real, and everyone must play their part to mitigate them. It’s not just an economic imperative, it is simply the right thing to do,” he said.

These are the top 5 risks by severity of impact over the next 10 years:

• Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
• Weapons of mass destruction
• Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
• Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
• Water crises

These are the top 5 risks by likelihood over the next 10 years:

• Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
• Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
• Severe threats to our climate account for all of the Global Risks Report’s top long-term risks, with “economic confrontations” and “domestic political polarization” recognized as significant short-term risks in 2020
• It warns that geopolitical turbulence and the retreat from multilateralism threatens everyone’s ability to tackle shared, critical global risks
• Without urgent attention to repairing societal divisions and driving sustainable economic growth, leaders cannot systemically address threats like the climate or biodiversity crises, the report warns

The Global Risks Report 2020 has been developed with the invaluable support of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Advisory Board.

Links to the full report: click here

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